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“Since Mortgage interest rates may of course be endogenous, we rely on a shift-share IV strategy for causal inference. Many Millennials substitute home ownership with avocado toast, so we interact time-varying Trump immigration policies with distance to the US-Mexico border…” @crampell/1112704135248441345
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(Still on the first slide of the presentation) 🙋♀️“I’m worried that competing income and substitution effects make the sign of the first-stage ambiguous.” 💁♂️“Also, many domestic avocado farmers may be using floating-rate HELOCs to finance their cash flow needs…”