lukestein’s avatarlukestein’s Twitter Archive—№ 4,317

  1. …in reply to @itaisher
    @itaisher @BasilHalperin @namalhotra I think indeed perhaps more interesting for favorites, and in some ways more important (since they’re more likely to win). Otoh, though, *less* important for them since I bet their conditional win probs are closer to and more informative about their unconditional “electability.”
    1. …in reply to @lukestein
      @itaisher @BasilHalperin @namalhotra To use/abuse Basil’s notation, [state of the world where Yang nominated] is a much less typical state of the world than [state where Warren nom]. So though incorrect to use conditional statements about either as if unconditional, likely *more* incorrect for former than latter.