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I hope he’ll make it home, but mainly just glad that Paul made it here to @BabsonFinance to present our last seminar of the semester on “Medicare and the geography of consumer financial strain” @paulgp/1466764621604347911
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@paulgp Asks: How does health insurance shape the geography of US financial health? - Effect of Medicare on outcomes (avg and variance) - Which regions (and their characteristics) have largest gains? - Forecasting!
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@paulgp Uses @NewYorkFed Consumer Credit Panel / @Equifax data on 5% panel of US population (1999–2017); ACS; geography-level hospital attribute and Medicare spending Basically RD in age-65 (annoying nuance incl. birth-𝘺𝘦𝘢𝘳 data not birth𝘥𝘢𝘺 cf. aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.20160945 )
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@paulgp Many financial things (e.g., credit scores, bankruptcy) have no RD change through the age-65 but 💢 𝗱𝗲𝗯𝘁 𝗰𝗼𝗹𝗹𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 (flow) DOES!! (≈ $400 per person with collections) Age-65 also reduces cross-state variation in health insurance status and collections debt
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@paulgp There’s lots of cross-sectional variation in where debt collection falls post age 65 (can scale either per capita or per newly-insured, though latter isn’t like a causal IV since • other stuff changes at age 65 • including for the already-insured) Strongest effects in places…
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@paulgp … with - More Black Americans 👋🏿 - More people with disabilities🦽 - More for-profit hospitals 🏥 - In “Deep South”
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Unsurprisingly, this was an interesting paper very well presented. Great discussion in the room. There’s more here from the authors: @yaleicf/1390683677160525829
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P.S. Paul got his Uber👇 and earned a place in my kid’s heart by teaching five-year-old-appropriate Russian humor @paulgp/1466947289134637056