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@kmmunger @arthur_spirling @namalhotra @JustinEsarey As you note, volume data is there. The big problem with treating prices as probabilities seems to be existence of *serious* trading frictions; I got good feedback on this after setting up @ElectabilityBot as a toy project. See this, but with caveats… 1/2 @lukestein/1178329605817503744On twitter.com
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@kmmunger @arthur_spirling @namalhotra @JustinEsarey @ElectabilityBot Main caveat is that I'm a dilettante in this area. @rajivatbarnard, who is a real expert, notes that there *are* ways to earn higher net returns (dollar and rate), but seems to agree that spread + 10% profit + 5% cashout “fee structure is outrageous.” 2/2 @rajivatbarnard/1178485248457347077Permalink On twitter.com
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